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🚨 800,000-VOTE SWING: DEMS LEAD TEXAS EARLY VOTE 7 DAYS STRAIGHT 🚨
The 2026 midterms are one week away, and the Texas early vote numbers are in. 4.5 million ballots were cast in the first seven days of early voting in Texas, and Democrats led Republicans every single day. That never happened in 2022 or 2024. As of day seven, Democrats are ahead by 115,499 ballots. At the same point in 2024, Republicans led by 700,000. That's an 800,000-vote swing toward Democrats in two years, with the Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico Senate race at the top of the ballot and Texas GOP county chairs saying on the record that they're concerned.
📊 In this video I break down the Texas early voting data from Ryan Data & Research, the political consulting firm the Republican Party of Texas relies on for polling, fundraising and get-out-the-vote spending (and one the RNC cites when it moves money between states), cross-checked against Decision Desk HQ's Early Voting Pro subscription, VoteHub and OnPoint Politics. Texas has no party registration, so I also walk through how the modeling works: Secretary of State and county voter data get cross-referenced against each voter's primary history over the last four cycles, which puts the Texas electorate at roughly 35% Republican, 23% Democrat and 31% general-election-only.
📉 The electorate is shifting too. Voters 18 to 29 make up 11% of the Texas early vote so far, up from 6.9% in 2022. Boomers are down to 37% from 41.5%. Women are 53.9% of ballots cast.
🗳️ Can Republicans make it up on Election Day? I go back to the Election Day margins from 2022 (+300,000 GOP) and 2024 (+98,000 GOP) to show what a comeback would take, plus Greg Abbott telling Fox News the trend lines are improving for Paxton, and Katy Tur on MSNBC admitting she doubts the Texas polls after being on the ground. Only 23.7% of Texas voters have cast a ballot, Trump and JD Vance are heading to Texas to rally, and the voters who show up on Election Day are usually the ones who never vote early. Blue wave, blue tsunami or blue mirage? Drop your Texas prediction in the comments.
✅ Texas early vote totals vs. 2022 and 2024
✅ How Texas models party turnout without party registration
✅ The 115,499 Democrat lead and the 800,000-vote swing
✅ Texas GOP county chair Tim Davis on The Dan and Lo Show
✅ Election Day math: what Republicans need to close the gap
✅ Early vote demographics: Gen Z up, Boomers down
✅ Trump and Vance rallies, Abbott on Fox, Katy Tur on MSNBC
This is the first in a series this week breaking down the early vote in the top battleground states. 🔔 Subscribe so you don't miss the rest before Election Day.
👍 A thumbs-up really does help me reach more viewers in the algorithm.
#Midterms2026 #EarlyVoting #TexasSenate #Talarico #Paxton #Conservative #Republican #IndependentVoter #PoliticalCommentary #USPolitics
In today's video:
00:00 Midterms One Week Out
00:22 Texas Early Vote Snapshot
02:37 How Turnout Is Modeled
04:16 Democrats Lead So Far
05:52 GOP Chairs Sound Alarm
07:36 Can Election Day Flip It
09:10 Poll Skepticism vs Data
11:12 Who Is Voting in Texas
13:07 Blue Mirage or Tsunami
15:17 Final Thoughts and Predictions
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- Daniel Dalton (aka "StateOfDaniel" or "State of Daniel channel")
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