Description
🚨 FAKE POLLSTER FOOLED THE NEW YORK TIMES — THEN ADMITTED IT 🚨
CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten just told Democrats three words about the 2026 Senate polls: “Trust no one.” Democrats lead in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Alaska and Ohio — all states Trump won by double digits — but Enten’s own numbers show why that lead is thinner than it looks. Republicans have beaten their final Senate poll averages by 4.1 points in Trump-won states, cycle after cycle. Run that correction across the 2026 map and Republicans keep the Senate 52–48, holding Michigan, Ohio, Texas and Alaska.
And it wasn’t just CNN. Steve Kornacki went on NBC the same morning and called the Democratic leads “tenuous,” reminding everyone that Republicans in the Trump era look at polls like these and say “got them just where we want them” — Ohio, Iowa, and the 2020 Kansas Senate race where the Republican won by double digits after polls showed the Democrat in range. Frank Luntz, no fan of Trump, admitted on CNN he got 2016 wrong because Trump voters don’t answer pollsters, and he’s not convinced they’re measuring turnout now.
Then the story the newsrooms are burying:
✅ Wedgewood Polls, which had El-Sayed +3.5 in Michigan and Troy Jackson +2.8 in Maine, announced its numbers were fabricated — an “experimental project” with no real data behind most of its releases
✅ By its own account it was added to major aggregators including the New York Times, 50Plus1 and VoteHub, and cited on air by MS NOW
✅ This is the second fake pollster exposed this cycle — the first was the Wisconsin firm behind the Francesca Hong +20 poll
✅ Cook Political Report quietly moved Minnesota from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat, and Bret Baier’s board shows Michele Tafoya winning if Midwest Republicans outperform again
✅ The honest warning sign for Republicans: Democrats flipped all seven special elections last year and four of five in 2024
I also walk through what the campaigns are actually doing versus what the polls say — why Trump is spending time in Kansas, Iowa and Alaska, why Republicans pulled their North Carolina ad money, and why this midterm comes down to turnout, inflation, gas prices and the cost of living more than any poll average. Like the stock market, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results — but Republicans would rather have that track record than not.
In today's video:
00:00 Senate Control Question
00:25 Trump State Poll Shock
01:08 Campaign Stops Signal Trouble
02:21 GOP Polling Overperformance
05:01 Frank Luntz Turnout Warning
06:33 Headwinds and No Dem Vision
07:39 Special Elections Red Flag
09:21 Enten Model 52-48 Map
10:50 Kornacki Echoes Tight Races
12:38 Fake Polling Bombshell
14:58 Minnesota Suddenly In Play
15:43 Final Predictions and Wrap
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- Daniel Dalton (aka "StateOfDaniel" or "State of Daniel channel")
#Midterms2026 #Midterms #Polls #Politics #PoliticalAnalysis #PoliticalCommentary #USNews #USPolitics #Republican #Democrat #Commentary #News #IndependentJournalist
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