Description
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Tavi Costa to the show. Tavi Costa is Founder & CEO of Azuria Capital LLC. Costa argues that the U.S. is approaching a fiscal breaking point, emphasizing that current bond yields are unsustainable when measured against record debt levels. He notes that with over a quarter of U.S. debt rolling over in the next twelve months at higher rates, the situation is becoming increasingly asymmetric. He predicts eventual intervention through yield curve control or other mechanisms to suppress yields and weaken the dollar, which would benefit hard assets, mining, and emerging markets.
Recorded on: October 07, 2026
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:38 - US Treasury Markets Signal
00:05:05 - Global Debt Issues Explored
00:08:25 - Sponsor Message Bellasets
00:09:14 - Emerging Markets Comparison
00:18:20 - Sponsor Message Palisades
00:19:09 - Gold Reset Thesis
00:27:20 - Geopolitics and Wars
00:32:40 - Latin America Investment Shift
00:35:40 - Portfolio Construction Framework
00:43:20 - Mining Investment Pitfalls
00:49:50 - Azeria Capital Launch
00:57:36 - Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/tavicosta
Azuria Capital: https://azuriacapital.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/otavio-tavi-costa-76368628
Substack: https://tavicosta.substack.com
Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is the Founder and CEO of Azuria Capital LLC. He invented a macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.