Description
Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and host of the All Ground Up podcast, returns to Palisades Gold Radio to dissect the current state of global energy markets. He explains why the unprecedented supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict have not yet caused widespread shortages in the West, attributing this to high inventories and the ability of wealthier nations to outbid emerging markets for scarce barrels. However, he warns of a growing crisis in refined products, particularly diesel, where crack spreads have surged to over $100 a barrel—more than double the price of crude itself.
Timestamps:
00:00:29 - Introduction: Rory Johnston on energy crisis
00:00:41 - Assessing Middle East supply disruptions
00:01:28 - Impact of high prices on emerging markets
00:02:26 - Shipping rates surge and tanker inefficiency
00:05:20 - Iran attacks on tankers and fleet impact
00:09:56 - Refining capacity crisis and product tightness
00:15:19 - US-Russia diesel deal and export ban debate
00:20:05 - Ukraine refinery attacks and energy truce
00:24:44 - Outlook: product tightness vs crude recovery
00:30:57 - Demand destruction through diesel prices
00:35:36 - Escalation risks and stock drawdowns
00:39:22 - Saudi Arabia's challenges and Houthi attacks
00:43:03 - Natural gas and LNG market tightness
00:44:46 - Wrap-up and where to follow Rory's work
Guest Links:
Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/
X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston
Guest Biography:
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).
Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.
#Hashtags #OilMarketCrisis #DieselShortage #RefiningCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #TankerRates #SupplyDisruption #EnergyWar #MiddleEastOil #DemandDestruction #CrudeTightness #ProductCrackSpread #RussianDiesel #ChinaExports #HouthiAttacks #GlobalOilBalkanization