Description
Geopolitical strategist Michael Every of Rabobank delivers a stark analysis of the converging global conflicts reshaping energy markets, supply chains, and the macroeconomic landscape. Every argues that the US-Iran conflict is set to reignite imminently, with a re-escalation expected after the US midterm elections.
Michael frames the Middle East and Ukraine wars as two fronts of a single US-China cold war, where control over upstream commodities is the central strategic lever. He explains that the US is deliberately fragmenting global commodity markets, creating a dual-price world where North America benefits from cheaper energy while adversaries face inflated costs.
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Recorded on: October 29, 2026
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Hormuz Attacks Spike Shipping Costs
00:00:44 - War with Iran: Imminent Restart?
00:03:48 - Why Not Preemptive Strike?
00:05:09 - Conflict Drivers: US-China Cold War
00:09:21 - US-China Power Dynamics
00:12:15 - Demographics: Least Dirty Shirt
00:16:44 - Ukraine: Another Front of Same War
00:20:41 - Resources as Power Leverage
00:23:29 - Iran War: Resource Control or Weaponization?
00:26:31 - Energy Tightness and Price Disparities
00:31:51 - US Leverage: Oil, LNG, Copper, Agriculture
00:35:02 - Fertilizers and Sulfur Supply Gaps
00:36:26 - Escalation: Air Campaign or Ground Troops?
00:38:29 - Targeting Energy and Desalination Plants
00:40:02 - Merging Wars: Ukraine and Middle East
00:43:24 - East Asia Flashpoints and Tail Risks
00:45:25 - Implications for Life, Business, and Investing
00:50:00 - Gold's Role in a Fragmented World
00:55:50 - Follow Michael Every's Work
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.rabobank.com/
LinkedIn: https://hk.linkedin.com/pub/michael-every/14/832/389
X: https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery
Guest Biography:
Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank. He analyses major financial developments and contributes to the bank’s various economic research publications for internal and external customers and to the media.
Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.
Michael holds a Masters degree in Economics (with distinction) from University College London and speaks a smattering of languages, including Thai.