Description
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Rory Johnston to the show. Rory Johnston is a Commodity Market Research Specializing in Oil and Gas. Johnston describes an unprecedented period of volatility in oil markets, where the supply-demand balance swung radically within a single month. Following a ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, a surge of previously stranded tankers created a temporary mini-glut, flipping market structures from severe backwardation into contango. However, this glut proved fleeting as inbound empty tankers, initially driven by the most risk-tolerant owners, have dried up, leaving Gulf loadings constrained by available shipping capacity. Consequently, supply is tightening aggressively again.
Recorded on: July 15, 2026
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:31 - Energy Supply Demand Dynamics
00:04:30 - Mini-Glut and Market Flip
00:08:22 - Hormuz Traffic and Tankers
00:10:44 - China Import Swing Explained
00:14:50 - China Inventory Releases Analyzed
00:21:28 - Western SPR and Inventories
00:25:30 - Commercial vs Strategic Stocks
00:27:33 - Private Inventories
00:29:00 - Global Oil Deficit Calculation
00:32:28 - World Barrel Deficit
00:34:06 - Refining Capacity Tightness
00:43:30 - Product Shortages and Refineries
00:47:07 - Crack Spreads & Risks
00:52:50 - Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/
X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).
Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.
#EnergyMarkets #OilSupply #CrudeOil #DieselPrices #RefineryCrisis #HormuzStrait #ChinaDemand #StrategicReserves #CommodityContext #GlobalTrade #SupplyChain #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #MarketVolatility #OilPrices