Description
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond.
Something unusual is happening high above the Arctic. The stratospheric polar vortex has weakened and become dramatically stretched, with powerful planetary waves travelling upwards from the lower atmosphere and disturbing the vortex.
In this Deep Dive, we explain what the stratospheric polar vortex is, what happens during a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), and the difference between Wave 1 and Wave 2 disturbances. We look at why the current Wave 2 pattern has deformed the vortex, whether forecasts suggest the winds could reverse and produce a major SSW, and why that still wouldn't guarantee cold weather for the UK.
We also explore the fascinating link with El Niño: how unusually warm waters and displaced tropical thunderstorms across the Pacific can alter planetary waves thousands of miles away, helping to increase the chances of disruption to the polar vortex.
Bringing you this Deep Dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
#deepdive #elnino #science
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