Description
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In this video, I break down exactly what a trading edge actually is, why win rate can be incredibly misleading, how a strategy that loses more trades than it wins can still be profitable, and why even a 90% win-rate strategy can potentially lose money.
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You'll learn:
• What a trading edge actually means
• Why individual winning and losing trades tell you very little
• How trading expectancy works
• Why win rate alone is almost meaningless
• How risk-to-reward affects profitability
• Why cherry-picked chart examples can fool traders
• How hindsight bias destroys strategy testing
• Why sample size matters when backtesting
• How spreads, commissions and slippage affect your edge
• Why profitable trading edges can change over time
• How to determine whether your strategy actually has an edge
• The 7-step process I use to investigate a trading strategy
The biggest shift is this:
Stop trying to find trades that are going to win.
Instead ask:
“What evidence do I have that taking this type of trade repeatedly has historically produced favourable economics?”
That's a very different way of thinking about trading.
And it's one of the biggest differences between gambling on individual trades and approaching the markets systematically.
If you'd like me to make a complete video showing you how I test a trading strategy from scratch using PerformanceOS, comment **TEST** below.
Time Stamps
00:00 Which Trade Would You Take?
00:43 What Is a Trading Edge?
01:04 The Coin Flip Example
01:57 How a 40% Win Rate Can Make Money
03:10 Why an 80% Win Rate Can Lose Money
04:06 Trading Expectancy Explained Simply
05:28 The Danger of Cherry-Picked Trading Strategies
06:28 Hindsight Bias in Technical Analysis
06:48 How to Properly Define a Trading Strategy
07:42 How Many Trades Should You Backtest?
08:23 The Hidden Costs That Destroy Trading Edges
09:25 Where Does a Trading Edge Come From?
10:03 Can a Trading Edge Disappear?
10:54 How to Know If Your Edge Has Changed
11:26 Beautiful Trade vs Ugly Trade
12:09 Why Traders Constantly Change Their Strategies
12:46 What Trading Can Learn From Insurance Companies
13:40 7 Steps to Find Your Trading Edge
14:27 Why Big Profits and High Win Rates Can Be Misleading
15:11 Stop Looking for Winning Trades
15:30 The Question Professional Traders Ask
16:24 How I Test Trading Strategies
16:42 PerformanceOS & Tier One Trading
✒️ Disclaimer:
No part of this video or any of the content in it is legal or financial advice.
Results from what Jason Graystone teaches may not be typical nor expected for every person. Jason is a professional investor and currency trader. This is not a “get rich quick” scheme. Your results may be better, worse, or the same as Jason’s.
All information provided on this website is based on best practices and for educational purposes only.
Jasongraystone.com (JG) is an online educational website only. Information contained throughout the site/video may be provided by sources that are not affiliated with JG.
By accessing this information, you acknowledge your understanding and consent to the foregoing and shall not hold JG liable.
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