Description
Gold has had its moment. Copper is getting crowded. This is the commodity trade the market is still sleeping on.
Aluminium is converging on a rare dual catalyst: a structural supply squeeze and an accelerating demand shift toward energy infrastructure, EVs, solar grids, and copper substitution. ING keeps its 2026 aluminium price forecast elevated at $3,500 (Q3) and $3,400 (Q4). The World Bank projects aluminium to hit all-time highs in 2026. LME inventories are at their lowest level since September 2022, and the market is already in backwardation.
In this video, we break down:
- Why has aluminium's demand profile structurally changed
- 3 supply pressures tightening the market (Middle East, energy costs, China's 45M ton cap)
- 4 structural demand drivers: EVs, power grids, solar infrastructure & copper substitution
- 4 risks that could invalidate the bullish thesis
- 5 metrics every aluminum trader must watch right now
CHAPTERS
0:00 The Commodity Trade Nobody Is Watching
0:35 Why Aluminium Is Back on the Radar
1:30 ING's 2026 Price Forecast: $3,500 Q3
2:06 Supply Side: Where the Real Opportunity Hides
2:34 Supply Pressure #1: Middle East Shock
3:20 Supply Pressure #2: Energy & Smelter Constraints
4:10 Supply Pressure #3: China's 45M Ton Capacity Cap
4:48 LME Inventories at 3-Year Lows
5:39 Why Demand Is About to Surprise the Market
6:24 4 Structural Demand Drivers Explained
7:45 Why Markets Are Still Underpricing Aluminum
9:21 4 Risks That Could Invalidate the Bull Case
11:01 5 Metrics Every Aluminium Trader Must Watch
12:02 Final Thesis: The Structural Scarcity Trade
#Aluminium #AluminiumTrading #CommodityTrading #AluminiumForecast #MetalMarkets #CommodityMarkets #EnergyTransition #CommodityAnalysis #GeopoliticalMarketRisks #IndustrialMetals
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The information in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading Forex and other financial instruments involves a significant risk of loss. FXStreet and the presenter do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information and accept no liability for any losses arising from its use. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of FXStreet or its partners.