Description
Gold technical analysis ahead of Wednesday's FOMC rate decision reveals a mildly bullish Elliott Wave structure, but FXStreet's Ian Coleman advises waiting for confirmation before buying the dip. Gold has lost 30% since January, dropping below the psychological $4,000 level after topping at $5,602. The daily chart shows a completed bullish Elliott wave count at the August 25 peak of $4,697, with the latest sell-off stalling near the 161.8% extension at $4,026.
Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve marked the exact top in Gold. Rising energy prices, the Middle East conflict, and Washington's fiscal trajectory have pushed inflation expectations higher, lifting bond yields and pressuring Gold, which pays no coupon or dividend. Core CPI has climbed from 2.6% in June to 2.7% in September, and the last time it was below the 2% target was February 2021. CME's FedWatch tool assigns a 91% probability to rates holding at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday, but markets price an 80% chance of a December hike and 58% for March. Societe Generale expects a hold with a tightening bias, followed by 25-basis-point hikes in December and March. TD Securities warns hot inflation data could even force a 50-basis-point move.
On the 4-hour chart, Wyckoff analysis suggests a false breakdown below a rectangle accumulation zone, forming a spring. The initial rally typically stalls near the primary support zone between $4,113 and $4,139. Swing traders may prefer to wait for confirmation and buy at the $4,066 test level. The preferred stance: mildly bullish but awaiting confirmation, with the $3,942 low as the invalidation level.
Chapters:
0:00 Gold Below $4,000: Fed Preview & Inflation Outlook
0:33 US Dollar Debasement Trade Driving Gold Higher?
1:21 Real Treasury Yields vs Gold Price Explained
2:08 FOMC Outlook & Inflation Target Shift
3:25 CME FedWatch: Market Pricing For Next Fed Cut
4:26 Wall Street Banks On Higher-For-Longer Rates
5:36 Gold Elliott Wave Analysis & Key Support Levels
6:48 Wyckoff Accumulation: 4-Hour Gold Swing Trade Plan
7:50 Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Bias & Levels To Watch
#GoldPrice #FOMC #ElliottWave
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The information in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading Forex and other financial instruments involves significant risk of loss. FXStreet and the presenter do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information and accept no liability for any losses arising from its use. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of FXStreet or its partners.