Description
Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors expects interest rate cuts by mid-2027 as the economy slows, and says gold will like that. But after gold jumped more than $100 on the midterm vote, he's cutting gold miners, he's out of silver, he's selling Google and Microsoft, and he's holding about half his clients' money in cash and Treasuries.
Oakley, who has managed money through every cycle since the 1970s, says we're at the end of this cycle and expects weakness for most of 2027. He explains why the "just buy the S&P 500" approach is coming to an end, why commodities are signaling a slowdown, why he sold 20% of his top energy winners, and why he's moving that money into 3- to 5-year Treasuries.
He also lays out how he'd invest $1 million in cash right now, why he says the US can't pay off its $40 trillion debt, and the biggest mistake he sees investors over 65 making. His new book with Chance Finucane, Asleep at the Wheel, is due out in early January.
Recorded November 4 2026
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CHAPTERS
00:00 Midterm vote: gold, the dollar and stocks react
01:00 Is the market reading the election right?
02:00 "End of this cycle" and a weaker 2027
04:19 Stagflation? Why he expects rate cuts by mid-2027
05:43 The 1929 and 1999 stock market signal
07:09 The top 20 stocks are weakening too
08:49 "Just buy the S&P 500" is coming to an end
10:12 Sell the Nasdaq bounce
10:56 Gold vs. gold miners: why he cut the miners
15:37 Central banks buying, who's selling gold
16:41 Why he's out of silver, and the 18-month wait
18:59 Copper peaked, short uranium
23:13 How to value a gold miner now
24:16 The gold stocks he never sells
25:13 Energy: selling 20% of his top winners
27:01 Where the money goes: 3- to 5-year Treasuries
28:03 When markets fall hard, gold falls too
28:39 Oil, pipelines and the long-term case
30:00 Is this the 1970s?
31:11 How much is in Treasuries now
32:04 Corporate bonds and munis
33:02 Why you need safe money now
34:03 Big tech: just a bounce, selling Google and Microsoft
36:55 Is 4% cash losing to inflation?
39:00 The 30-year Treasury and financial repression
40:16 The debt ceiling, the dollar and gold
41:04 $2 trillion deficits: "never had the guts"
41:38 Housing is stuck
42:44 Is the consumer cracking?
44:21 Lightning round: gold, silver, oil, Bitcoin
49:46 $1 million in cash: only 20% in stocks
52:24 The biggest mistake: too much stock for your age
53:39 The consistency story
#gold #stockmarket #interestrates
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