Description
Wall Street just had its biggest Bitcoin day in a year, while crypto's own money is quietly leaving. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF took in $665 million on Monday, its biggest day since the all-time-high week in October 2025, but stablecoin supply fell by about $2.6 billion in a week. And US margin debt is now $1.48 trillion, nearly five times the dot-com peak.
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US spot Bitcoin ETFs had two red weeks in a row before Monday's $527 million inflow, and Tuesday added only $23 million more. Bitcoin has now tested $80,000 twice and held both times, but every push above $83,000 has been sold. September's inflation came in at 3.7%, above forecast, yet the 10-year yield is back at 5.12% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he doesn't prejudge meetings. Brent crude hit $111.97 on Tuesday after attacks on tankers and Saudi oil sites, and that's the chart that could force the Fed's hand on 28 October. Then the margin debt chart, why I never use leverage, the weekly Bitcoin chart and three scenarios for the Fed meeting.
In this video
00:00 Something odd under the surface of this market
01:10 Last week's scenarios, scored
01:34 Bitcoin ETF flows: two red weeks, then $665M in a day
02:44 Stablecoin supply: crypto's own money is leaving
03:18 Bitcoin daily: $80,000 tested twice, and held
04:08 Hot inflation, but yields fell. The Fed odds
05:26 Brent crude: the real threat
06:20 US margin debt: $1.48 trillion, nearly 5x the dot-com peak
07:20 Bitcoin weekly: five closes above the 50-week
08:48 Hyperliquid: the $77 to $78 zone
09:00 Three scenarios for the Fed meeting
09:50 The week ahead
10:46 What I'm doing with my own money
Levels from this episode
Resistance: $83,000, $84,972, $87,374, then $90,000
Support: $80,000, $79,736 (15 Oct low), the 50-week average near $76,100
October monthly open: $83,554
Data as of 21 October 2026. Sources: Yahoo Finance, TradingView, Farside, DefiLlama, CoinGecko, Kalshi, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, FINRA.
Mentioned in this video
Last week's TA, with the HYPE $84 call: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akHfIoM2gmw
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Learning Crypto is run by Heidi and Toby, who have covered Bitcoin and self-custody on this channel since 2016. Nothing here is financial advice and we are not licensed advisors. Markets are volatile, do your own research, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. We will never message you first on any platform; anyone who does is not us.
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